Sep 11, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh (R) shares a laugh with outfielder Nick Castellanos (L) before the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Phillies locked up a top-two seed on the National League side of the MLB postseason bracket on Wednesday. We know the Phils will have a bye for the wild card round of the playoffs, and we know they will have home field advantage in their divisional series. Game one of their NLDS will be played at Citizens Bank Park on October 5.
But with a handful of games left to play, three questions remain:
1. Will the Phillies secure the NL's number one seed and guarantee home field advantage in the NLCS?
2. Will the Phillies secure a better record than all AL teams and guarantee home field advantage in the World Series?
3. Who will be the Phillies' NLDS opponent?
A Dodgers win over the Padres on Thursday night officially eliminated the Padres from contention for the NL's top seed. LA and the Phillies now have the same number of games remaining, and the Phillies own the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record.
The scenarios now become very simple:
- Dodgers play 3 @ Rockies
- Phillies play 3 @ Nationals
- If the Dodgers go 3-0, they get the top seed.
- If the Dodgers go 2-1, the Phillies get the top seed if they go 3-0.
- If the Dodgers go 1-2, the Phillies get the top seed if they go 2-1 or better.
- If the Dodgers go 0-3, the Phillies get the top seed if they go 1-2 or better. (And they would owe the Rockies a nice dinner.)
Prediction: Dodgers and Phillies both sweep their series, Dodgers get top seed with 98 wins.
The Yankees and the Guardians are the only AL teams that could get home field advantage over the Phils in the World Series. Both teams own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Phillies.
- Yankees play 3 vs. Pirates
- Guardians play 3 vs Astros
- Phillies play 3 @ Nationals
- If the Phillies go 3-0, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series.
- If the Phillies go 2-1, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series unless the Yankees go 3-0. The Guardians would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 1-2, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series unless the Yankees go 2-1 or better OR the Guardians go 3-0.
- If the Phillies go 0-3, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series unless the Yankees go 1-2 or better OR the Guardians go 2-1 or better. (Note that in this scenario, Philadelphia likely burns to the ground.)
Prediction: Phillies sweep Nats, lock up home field advantage for any potential World Series.
The Phillies will play one of the following teams: Padres, Brewers, Mets, Diamondbacks, or Braves. The Dodgers removed themselves from the mix when they beat the Padres Thursday night.
The Braves are currently on the outside of the postseason looking in, but they could still win a spot at the expense of the Mets or Diamondbacks.
The Brewers are locked in as the NL's three seed, and in the wild card round they will play whichever team ends up with the six seed. The winner of the Brewers/six seed matchup will then face the two seed.
The four and five seeds will play each other in the wild card round. The winner of that matchup will then face the two seed.
Because the Phillies may end up with the one seed or two seed, and because the four/five/six seeds are all in flux, all possible NLDS matchups are still in play.
If the postseason started today, the bracket would look like this:
Prediction: Mets somehow Met themselves out of a postseason spot. Seeding ends up (3) Brewers, (4) Padres, (5) Diamondbacks, (6) Braves. At (2), Phillies get winner of Brewers/Braves in NLDS.
