Aug 13, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) smiles after a game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Kamil Krzaczynski
There's no way to sugarcoat it — Juan Soto joining the New York Mets Sunday was the worst possible outcome for the Phillies.
Soto, still only 26 years old, agreed to a record-shattering 15-year/$765 million deal to leave the New York Yankees for the crosstown-rival Mets. If it hadn't already been the case, it signaled that the era of Yankees hegemony that existed in the late-1990s and early-2000s under George Steinbrenner is long gone. Mets owner Steve Cohen — who is estimated by Forbes to have a net worth of $21 billion — is the captain now, both in New York and across baseball. He's got the mix of an insane amount of money and a clear indifference to exactly how much of a profit he's making off of his baseball team every year.
Naturally, there's some sticker shock with Soto, who just landed the largest contract in the history of professional sports. Even if you ignore the $680 million in deferrals two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani got last offseason, Soto blew away the $700 million that arguably the most gifted player the game has ever seen received on the open market from the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter. Can Soto — who unlike Ohtani, doesn't also pitch — really be worth this type of investment?
The answer, without hesitation, is yes.
Juan Soto contract: 15 years - $765M deal
Cost to build Live! Casino & Hotel Philadelphia: $700 million pic.twitter.com/sauenPIWhv
— On Pattison (@OnPattison) December 9, 2024
Ohtani signed to play for 10 years, as opposed to 15 from Soto. Ohtani was entering his age-29 season, and coming off of his second major elbow surgery that would prevent him from pitching at all in 2024 and leave reasonable doubt about how much longer he could do both. Soto just turned 26 in October. He's played in at least 151 games in every full season of his career, which excludes the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. His most appealing skill— a Barry Bonds-esque offensive approach — is a much safer bet to age well than Ohtani's was. There's been a bizarre attempt on social media to try to say that Soto isn't worth this type of investment because he's not a five-tool player. If anything, that makes him a safer bet. You aren't signing him to field like Dave Parker in right field, or steal 400 bases like Bobby Abreu. Soto was signed because he is a generational talent at the plate. That phrase gets annoyingly overused in sports discourse today, but there's no other way to describe Soto.
Before his age-26 season, Soto has already hit 201 home runs, led baseball in walks on three occasions, finished sixth or better in MVP voting four times, made four All-Star Game appearances and won five Silver Slugger Awards. He helped the Washington Nationals to win their first World Series in 2019, turning 21 just in time to be able to enjoy a champagne celebration. In what proved to be his lone year with the Yankees, he posted a staggering 8.1 WAR, and put together an all-time at-bat in Game 5 of the ALCS that culminated in him hitting a home run that sent New York to the World Series:
JUAN SOTO THREE RUN HOME RUN IN THE 10TH!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/Tj4b5CuM4T
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) October 20, 2024
As for his fielding, he recommitted himself last offseason to improving his defense, working with former Gold Glove Award winner Jackie Bradley Jr. He finished the season with -1 defensive runs saved and -5 outs above average in right field, adding 10 total outfield assists and only two errors. His defense is fine. He can probably play in the outfield for at least five years of this contract, and then eventually either move to first base or DH. Wherever he plays, his bat will more than justify it.
The biggest problem for the Phillies is after a two-and-a-half year reprieve, Soto is back in the NL East. There are legitimate questions about the starting rotation of the Mets, although there's no reason to believe Cohen won't spend to fix those. And Soto will now join a lineup that includes Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo. He'll return to facing the Phillies 13 times a season. He'll return to standing in the way of the Phillies trying to win the NL East and make deep playoff runs in the senior circuit. In 77 career games against the Phillies, Soto already has 19 home runs and 46 RBIs. He's got a 1.086 OPS in 38 games at Citizens Bank Park. There's going to be no getting away from Soto now, who by the end of this contract will probably make Freddie Freeman and Ryan Zimmerman look like they didn't do that much damage to the Phillies.
Per @jorgecastillo, Juan Soto can opt out after the 2029 season or the Mets can void that opt out via a $4 million raise to $55 million/year for the remaining 10 years of Soto's deal.
If the void is exercised, the value of Soto's 15-year deal would reach $805 million. pic.twitter.com/oD8ickzosR
And if you're hoping that this will be a short-term arrangement, don't bank on it. Soto can exercise an opt-out clause after 2029, the fifth season of the deal. But Jorge Castillo of ESPN says that the Mets can void that opt-out if they agree to pay Soto $55 million per year over the remaining 10 seasons of the contract. As insane as that may sound right now, the guess here is that by the time Soto and agent Scott Boras make the procedural move of opting out after the 2029 season, Cohen and the Mets won't even have to hesitate in agreeing to increase the average annual value of the final decade of Soto's contract from $51 million to $55 million.
Above we mentioned Bonds. Well think of it this way, Bonds spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Pirates before joining the San Francisco Giants in free agency, and spending the final 15 years of his career by the Bay. Soto isn't going to start juicing halfway into his deal and become a superhuman that hits 73 home runs in his age-36 season, but he'll do plenty of damage with the Mets. They are his Giants. And the Phillies will find themselves on the wrong end of his greatness for the remainder of his career.
Alec Bohm for Ryan Pressly? Not enough.
But the Astros do have an intriguing trade candidate to consider if they end up as a suitor for Alec Bohm.
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