Jun 23, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) and first base Bryce Harper (3) against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Eric Hartline
Every Tuesday, On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo will answer your questions from social media pertaining to the Phillies. It's a little delayed this week because of a flurry of activity earlier this week and Christmas yesterday, but better late than never. Let's get to it.
@Philly_Isaac on X: How likely is a Ranger Suárez trade before the trade deadline next year?
@MrM_Phillies101 on X: Do you think Ranger opening the season as the closer is a possibility? That would have a positive impact for the team but negative impact on what he can get as a free agent. Would he be willing to go to the bullpen and would he have a choice?
Tim Kelly: In his meeting with the media on Zoom Monday, Dave Dombrowski was asked about trading from the sudden surplus of starters the Phillies have. Ranger Suárez wasn't mentioned, but that was certainly the name on a lot of people's minds.
While there's not a 0% chance someone overwhelms the Phillies for Suárez this offseason, I think that's what it would take for him to be moved. I feel pretty comfortable predicting right now that Suárez will be in the Opening Day starting rotation for the Phillies. And if he's with the Phillies to begin the year, it's hard to see a scenario where he doesn't play out his entire contract year with the team.
From @TimKellySports: Could The Phillies Now Trade From Starting Pitching Surplus?https://t.co/IL8X3BUyYW
He's not going to be in the bullpen to open the season, but the Phillies now have that as an option late in the year and certainly in the postseason if they have four other healthy starters.
Both Zach Eflin and Nathan Eovaldi have both shown you can still get paid to start in free agency even after postseason runs where you were utilized out of the bullpen. And with how high the prices are to acquire relievers in the summer, moving Suárez to the back end of the bullpen at some point might be the best use of resources for the Phillies down the stretch.
Anthony SanFilippo: I'll never say the likelihood of a trade is 0%, but I do think it's closer to zero than 100. Look, it makes sense, right? He's in his final year before free agency. They just traded for another lefty, so now they have three of them in the rotation. And the other four guys are all locked up beyond this season, so if someone had to be the oddball out, it'd be Suárez. Throw in the addition of Joe Ross, a true swingman, and the impending promotion of Andrew Painter and it's easy to see how Suárez can become a valuable trade commodity.
But, what do we know about pitchers? You can never have too many of them because of injuries. The Phillies learned a hard lesson last season when they were forced to trot out unacceptable arms every time the No. 5 spot in the rotation came up. They don't want to endure that again. They were a sub-.500 team whenever a game was started by someone other than Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez or Suárez (21-22).
All that said, assuming the rotation remains mostly healthy for the season, having the option to slide Suárez into a bullpen role once Painter is ready to debut is an appealing one. Suddenly, the bullpen, which looks a little more suspect right now than it did a few months ago, would again become a weapon. And we all have seen Suárez thrive in that role before. It just makes sense to me that you have him in the rotation to start the season and, if everyone's healthy, make him a dangerous option out of the 'pen as soon as Painter is ready to arrive on the scene.
@PhillyFrontOffice on Bluesky: Do you think a right-handed outfielder is in our future or are we staying with Wilson?
Tim Kelly: I was very surprised the Phillies went with Max Kepler as their outfield signing because beyond his injury history, it really seemed they needed a right-handed hitting corner outfielder.
Kepler is going to get the chance to play every day early in the season, but whether it's because he doesn't stay healthy or underperforms, the Phillies are going to need some right-handed at-bats. Wilson would be the No. 1 candidate to do that, and in my opinion, there's a lot to be intrigued by with him. He had an .836 OPS in 98 plate appearances last year, which is very impressive, even if it's over a small sample size. The biggest thing that stood out to me is that it always felt like he made hard contact against left-handed pitching, even if it was caught. He also gives you positional flexibility, although he's looked much more comfortable in the outfield than at third base.
When you're bumping up against the highest luxury tax threshold, you need pre-arb players like him to produce when called upon. I think he's up to it.
Every hit from Weston Wilson's cycle 😤 pic.twitter.com/jLsVY8eetq
Anthony SanFilippo: The Kepler signing STILL doesn't make sense to me. It's not that I don't think much of Kepler, I do. I know he had a rough 2024, but he does have a track record of production that could work at Citizens Bank Park — where, in a very small sample size of six games (five starts), he has gone 8-for-22 (.364) with a double and four homers — it's just that the Phillies were already too left-handed and now they are adding an everyday player who is also left-handed and one who throughout his career has not been able to hit left-handed pitching.
So, in my mind, the fit wasn't right.
Unless Dombrowski has a trick up his sleeve that we aren't seeing — like potentially coming up with a trade offer appealing enough to get Luis Robert out of the Chicago White Sox hellscape, that would turn either Kepler or Brandon Marsh into a No. 4 outfielder, where they are likely better suited — then there's probably going to have to be some sort of double platoon possibility.
Although Wilson has an option, he's the best possible fit there because he can play three infield positions and he actually played all three outfield positions last season. He's average at best defensively overall, but being a jack-of-all-trades is a real benefit.
Of your four bench bats, two are going to be Edmundo Sosa and the winner of the Spring Training battle between Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán for backup catcher. Then the two other guys have to be able to play the outfield — although one should have some infield versatility as well — so you are looking at a battle between three guys for two spots: Kody Clemens, Johan Rojas and Wilson.
I'd honestly find a way to keep both Clemens and Wilson to have a lefty and a righty available, but they sure love them some Rojas on this roster. If that's the case, it comes down to Wilson vs. Clemens. Clemens is out of options, but that doesn't mean the Phillies would automatically go with him. Facing a similar situation at the end of Spring Training last year, they ended up trading Jake Cave, who was out of options, to Colorado. If it's gotta be between Wilson and Clemens, I'd still go Wilson because of his ability to hit lefties and sub in for any of Kepler, Marsh or even Bryson Stott - against a tough lefty pitcher.
@ThirtyBallparks on Threads: Okay. Truth time. With the Phillies hot stove all but turned off, do you think the team has done enough this offseason to win a World Series?
Tim Kelly: Do I think this roster could win the World Series? Yes. Will I predict them to win the World Series? Probably not.
The starting pitching staff is clearly better with the addition of Jesús Luzardo and Andrew Painter's call-up looming. With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez likely to depart in free agency and Jordan Romano in, I don't think the bullpen is better than what the Phillies had at the end of the regular season last year. But, I could certainly see a healthy Romano proving to be a shrewd pickup, and if Suárez indeed ends up in the bullpen, the Phillies could have a pretty impressive unit down the stretch and into the postseason. Heck, things can't go much worse for the bullpen than they did in this year's NLDS.
Still, the biggest issue for the Phillies remains whether they can find a way to win in the postseason in games where Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, among others, aren't hitting home runs. We know they can slug, and when they do, the look unstoppable. But can they win multiple low-scoring games where they have to string hits together and move runners? It's fair to be skeptical. A lot of this comes down to whether Trea Turner and Bryson Stott do a better job of hitting for contact in 2025.
Right now, I believe the Phillies are right in the mix for being one of the top five teams. But many of the same issues that have been their undoing the last two postseasons still exist.
It Seems the Phillies Won’t Be Bringing Jeff Hoffman Backhttps://t.co/BQII6a8sRs
Anthony SanFilippo: In 2022, I predicted the Phillies to not only make the playoffs, but reach the NLCS. I was right, but they did me one better, and made it to the World Series. In 2023, I picked the same thing, and I was right again — although, if we're being truthful, once I saw the matchup was Arizona in the NLCS, I emphatically changed my pick to the Phillies and was emphatically proved wrong. Last year was the first time I ever picked the Phillies to win the division AND the first time I ever picked them to win the World Series. I got one right, and one very wrong.
So, my prognostication history has been either feast or famine. Very little in between. So take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt.
I honestly don't like making baseball predictions until the end of Spring Training. There are still some big names unsigned, and who knows who might get injured in Florida or Arizona that changes the outlook of a team, But, as of the day after Christmas I will say the Phillies have enough talent to win a World Series but I do not think they will, nor do I think they will get there. The Braves will be back to being the Braves this season, and the Mets are gonna be decent — although I'm not convinced their pitching will be good enough still, but we'll see. The point is, the NL East is going to be a war — and Washington is not a slouch team either. Keep an eye on the young and feisty Nats.
The Phillies are still a 90-plus win team, though and barring a catastrophe they will play October baseball. I'm just not sure they've done enough to tighten the screws on their offensive flaws to get through the gauntlet of talent in the National League.
I do reserve the right to change my mind before the first pitch of the season, though.
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