Next Pope odds currently available on Kalshi prediction market platform (Image Credit: Riccardo De Luca / Shutterstock)
With the passing of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, April 21, the whole world is asking who will fill the important vacancy for the Catholic church. Prediction markets are asking the same question.
Federally-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi added a market on Monday afternoon for “Who will the next Pope be?” And traders have responded with enthusiasm – and their wallets.
As of Thursday afternoon, the new Kalshi market had already attracted north of $1.4 million in trade volume. Polymarket, which posted the same market back in February when Pope Francis first became ill, has seen over $6.4 million in volume. There are currently two frontrunners, but these odds are subject to change up until the next Pope is confirmed.
Based on trading at Kalshi, here are the current leading candidates to become the next Pope as of late afternoon on April 24.
Pietro Parolin (27%)
Luis Antonio Tagle (24%)
Matteo Zuppi (12%)
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (9%)
Peter Turkson (8%)
In determining the next leader of the Catholic church, cardinal electors (cardinals under the age of 80) gather in a private meeting called a conclave that typically takes place in the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City. There, the cardinals are sequestered, isolated from the outside world and its influences. Four rounds of secret ballot voting take place every day until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority vote. The candidate must then accept the election before it becomes official.
Considering the secretive nature of the selection process, the papal election is well-suited as a prediction market. With no public information available as to the inner workings of the conclave, and no odds set by the Vatican, the prediction market serves as an important indicator as to the most likely cardinals to be the next pontiff.
Placing money on who you think will be the next Pope is indeed legal, as approved exchanges like Kalshi are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). You can also buy contracts on other election markets like the next president (in the U.S. and other countries), Senate and House races, or who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for president.
Betting on elections is nothing new. In fact, gambling on papal conclaves is well-documented from the 16th century and historians believe the practice started well before then. Pope Gregory XIV made betting on papal elections punishable by excommunication in 1591, though that hasn’t been the case since 1918.
The conclave can last anywhere from one day to a week or longer, or however long it takes to reach the required majority vote. The cardinals will gather 15-20 days following the late Pope’s death, meaning it will begin sometime between May 6 and May 11.
The Next Pope market on Kalshi will remain live until the replacement for Pope Francis is confirmed by any of a number of news sources. The person elected Pope must also accept the position for contracts on ‘Yes’ to pay out.
