Andrew Cuomo is the favorite to win the Democratic mayoral nomination
Nine Democratic candidates took the stage Wednesday night for a pivotal NYC mayoral primary debate. Prediction markets are telling a compelling story about the race's trajectory, one that traditional polling might miss, but investors won’t.
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On Kalshi, the leading prediction market platform that's been gaining significant traction in political forecasting, Andrew Cuomo had a commanding 84% probability of securing the Democratic nomination for NYC Mayor hours before the debate, and those odds barely moved post-debate. Prediction markets like this generate substantial trading volume, often offering real-time insights into how informed bettors view the event.
The fundamental difference between prediction markets and traditional political engagement lies in how you profit from being right. Traditional political participation involves donating, volunteering, and polling. It’s not necessarily tied to any financial return on your insights. Kalshi's prediction markets let you monetize your political knowledge through defined-risk contracts that pay out based on real electoral outcomes.
For example, if you believe Andrew Cuomo will secure the Democratic nomination for NYC Mayor, you could buy a "Yes" contract priced at 84 cents. If Cuomo indeed wins the nomination, your contract pays out $1, giving you a 16-cent profit. If any other candidate wins, you lose your 84-cent investment. The beauty is in the simplicity and defined risk — you know exactly what you stand to gain or lose before placing the trade.
The market's resolution rule is crystal clear: “If Andrew Cuomo is the first person to win the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2025 NYC Mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from New York Times.”
Almost all of the competitors are trading in single digits, suggesting the market views this as Cuomo's race to lose. But here's where it gets interesting: If you disagree with that consensus, you can profit from being contrarian.
Currently, the market has attracted a little over $2 million in trading volume, showing serious market interest.
Kalshi also offers more granular betting opportunities, like the “Margin of victory for Andrew Cuomo in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary” market. The 10.01-15% victory margin currently leads at 30% probability, suggesting traders expect Cuomo to win fairly decisively.
Cuomo's dominance in prediction markets comes with a fascinating wrinkle that highlights the nuanced nature of these platforms. Some traders have raised questions about whether the market should even exist, given that current mayor Eric Adams is running for re-election as an independent rather than seeking the Democratic nomination.
The market dynamics also reflect the complexity of Cuomo's comeback attempt. “That's clearly what it is, but he doesn't talk about it that way,” one prominent Democrat who's spoken to Cuomo multiple times about the race told CNN. “He talks about how the Democratic Party is so screwed up and it's too far to the left, he talks about what a disaster (former mayor Bill) de Blasio was, what a disaster (current mayor Eric) Adams is.”
Cuomo's own messaging reflects this positioning. “We have known each other a long time and we have been through a lot together. We talk to each other, we're straight with each other,” Cuomo said at his sole rally last week. “New York City is in trouble. You can feel it when you walk around the street. You feel it in the anxiety, in the frustration. You see it in the crime, you see it in the number of homeless mentally ill who are left on the streets. And you feel it in that New York City's just getting more expensive, and it is unaffordable for working men and women.”
Wednesday’s debate at 30 Rock was the first major test of whether Cuomo's prediction market dominance reflects reality or overconfidence. With opponents targeting him over sexual harassment allegations and his pandemic-era policies, the former governor faced his biggest vulnerability test yet.
The establishment backing behind Cuomo's market position is evident in endorsements like that from Rep. Gregory Meeks. “I thought about where the city is, what the city needs, where we take the next step so that we continue to grow and produce jobs and housing and get things done — to me, there's only one person that is running that has done those kinds of things,” Meeks told CNN. “No one can deny that as governor he was able to get things done that were innovative and creative, and that's what the city needs to continue to do now as we're moving forward into a more technological and interdependent world. Then finally, someone who can truly stand up to Donald Trump too.”
However, the race faces broader challenges in capturing public attention. “The mayoral race has not gotten a lot of traction,” New York Attorney General Letitia James told CNN. “We've not broken through all of the executive orders, the tariffs, the chaos, the confusion, and other corruption. So it's difficult in this climate, this 24-hour media circus.”
The morning after the debate, Cuomo had an 82% chance of winning the Democratic mayoral nomination, according to Kalshi traders.
Key factors prediction market traders are watching:
• How Cuomo handles attacks on his record could signal whether his frontrunner status is sustainable.
• State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani's rising profile among progressive voters could cut into Cuomo's base. In the Kalshi Democratic mayoral nominee market, Mamdani is the only candidate given more than a 1% chance of securing the nomination. The morning after the debate, his odds were at 19%.
• While Cuomo dominates fundraising and establishment support, prediction markets also weigh whether candidates like City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams or Comptroller Brad Lander can translate their institutional knowledge into voter appeal.
