If Tesla robotaxi release happens in 2025, some traders are set to cash in.
Elon Musk recently confirmed that Tesla plans to have its robotaxi service available in Austin, Texas by the end of June. The self-driving cybercabs are currently being tested in Austin and Tesla has been meeting with local officials to discuss safety and other measures. At prediction market platforms like Kalshi, users are able to bet on whether or not Tesla’s robotaxi will indeed be publicly launched before the end of 2025.
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There are several Tesla markets available at Kalshi. Users can trade on things like whether Teslas will be hit with tariffs from other countries, whether Elon Musk will step down as CEO in 2025 and even whether a Tesla vehicle will be a part of the presidential motorcade this year.
In the Kalshi market “Tesla robotaxi public release this year?,” the odds for most of May (based on trade activity) have been above 70% in favor of the rollout occurring before midnight on Dec. 31, 2025. With news of Tesla’s cybercab testing in Austin and Musk’s insistence they’ll be available to the public this summer, the odds reached an all-time high of 81% on May 17. As of May 28, the odds on this market resolving to “Yes” were at 79%.
To trade contracts in this Kalshi market for a chance to win real money, users can purchase “Yes” or “No” contracts. With 79% odds, each “Yes” contract can be purchased at 79 cents. If the market resolves to “Yes,” you would receive $1 for every contract purchased. Purchasing $100 worth of “Yes” contracts would garner the trader $124, a $24 profit, if the prediction comes true.
For those skeptical of Musk’s timeline, predicting “No” in this market has more value. Buying $100 in “No” shares at 25 cents each would result in a $380 payout.
According to a recent report by Fortune, Tesla began testing the robotaxis with safety drivers a few weeks ago in both Austin and the San Francisco area. A big selling point of the cybercab is that it will be driverless and fully automated, like the self-driving Waymo taxis currently available in a few markets.
The Fortune report says that Tesla has had initial meetings with Texas and Austin government agencies about the robotaxi rollout, but that they haven’t provided certain critical safety and other details to the Austin Fire Department and Austin transportation department. Tesla claims those details are forthcoming. Fortune says that robotaxi services like Waymo and Zoox have provided training and guides to city workers and emergency responders weeks or months ahead of launches in new markets.
The ongoing testing and the timeline provided by Musk, as well as cooperation with Texas officials, are fueling the optimistic outlook of Kalshi traders.
But Musk’s tendency to miss predicted deadlines and launches has some feeling as if the Tesla cybercab public unveiling could still be several months (or longer) away. At a 2019 investors event, Musk said he was “very confident” that Tesla would have 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020.
In 2016, Musk first suggested fully automated Teslas would be on the road and able to self-drive coast-to-coast within a year. There are still no Teslas that can fully operate without human involvement. Musk has also missed on predictions about his Space X launching its first Mars mission, affordably priced Tesla models, development of the high-speed Hyperloop transportation system, and more.
Tesla stock has been volatile the past few years. It hit an all-time high of 488.54 in December, but Musk’s close work with the Trump administration (which led to protests) and the overall economic uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s tariff plans saw Tesla shares drop up to 47% in the past few months. But the stock has rallied in recent weeks in anticipation of the robotaxi rollout and with Musk’s announcement that he was stepping away from his government role.
O'Neil Global Advisors portfolio manager Charles Harris recently said on an Investor's Business Daily podcast that investors should be patient with Tesla stock. Harris said he has focussed on non-margin trading with his Tesla holdings.
WedBush analyst Daniel Ives recently predicted that Tesla shares could rally 40% with the launch of the robotaxi and fully automated vehicles. So stock traders should be carefully watching the Tesla cybercab developments in the coming weeks.
Trading on Tesla markets at prediction platforms like Kalshi offers an alternative to buying stock, but it can also be complementary. For example, if you believe the robotaxis will be operational on the streets of Austin by the end of the year, buying “Yes” contracts on Kalshi’s cybercab launch market and buying or holding Tesla stock could reap big rewards.
Trade on the robotaxi launch and other Tesla markets at Kalshi today for a chance to win real money.
