The Kentucky Derby has a history of defying expectations. While powerhouse horses enter the race with all eyes on them, some of the sport’s biggest shocks have come from underdogs who outran the odds. The 2025 edition is no different, with a handful of lesser-known contenders quietly building momentum. Bettors looking for value know that a well-timed wager on an overlooked horse can lead to massive payouts. Which underdog will capture the crowd’s attention and shake up the betting scene this year?
In horse racing, an "underdog" refers to a horse that enters a race with low expectations of winning, often reflected in higher betting odds. Favorites typically overshadow these horses due to factors like limited racing success, less prominent pedigrees, or less experienced trainers. However, the unpredictable nature of horse racing means that underdogs can, and often do, defy expectations, adding a thrilling element to the sport.
Several underdogs have captured the public's imagination with their unexpected victories throughout the storied history of the Kentucky Derby. In 1913, Donerail stunned spectators by winning with a staggering 91-1 odds, a record that still stands today.
More recently, Rich Strike's 2022 triumph at 80-1 odds reminded fans that surprises are always possible on Derby Day. With the 2025 line up for Kentucky Derby already taking shape, many racing enthusiasts are keeping a close eye on potential long shots who could pull off another historic upset.
These underdog victories significantly impact the betting landscape. Bettors who place even modest wagers on long shots can reap substantial rewards, leading to heightened excitement and engagement. The possibility of an underdog win encourages a broader range of betting strategies as enthusiasts analyze various factors that could lead to an upset, thereby enriching the overall experience of the Kentucky Derby.
As the 2025 Kentucky Derby approaches, the spotlight often shines on the frontrunners. However, the true excitement lies in identifying the underdogs poised to defy expectations. Let's take a look at some of the contenders who could disrupt the betting landscape come Derby day.
Burnham Square began his racing career with modest performances, leaving many to overlook his potential. However, a recent surge in form has seen him clinch victories in lesser-known stakes races, showcasing a newfound tenacity.
Trained by Ian R. Wilkes and owned by Whitham Thoroughbreds, Burnham Square's resilience and adaptability have positioned him as a dark horse in the 2025 Derby lineup. His ability to navigate crowded fields and maintain stamina over longer distances suggests he could capitalize on the Derby's demanding course.
East Avenue, a Godolphin homebred trained by Brendan P. Walsh, has shown flashes of brilliance that hint at untapped potential. With a commanding 5 1/4-length victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), East Avenue firmly established himself as a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby. His pedigree suggests that stretching over 1 1/4 miles for the Derby won’t be an obstacle.
Owen Almighty's path to the Kentucky Derby has been marked by steady progress rather than a meteoric rise. Under the guidance of trainer Brian A. Lynch and representing Flying Dutchmen, this colt has demonstrated consistent improvement, particularly in mid-distance races.
His recent performance in the Tampa Bay Derby, where he secured a second-place finish, indicates a readiness to compete at higher levels. Owen Almighty's tactical versatility allows him to adapt to various race scenarios, making him a contender capable of exploiting any openings on Derby Day.
Coal Battle's journey to the Derby is a testament to perseverance. Trained by Lonnie Briley for Norman Stables, he has faced formidable competition throughout his career. Despite this, Coal Battle has secured crucial qualifying points, including a notable performance in the Arkansas Derby. His experience against top-tier opponents and ability to perform under pressure could serve him well in the high-stakes environment of the Kentucky Derby.
Hill Road's ascent has been characterized by gradual development and strategic race placements. Trained by Adrian Murray for Arno Racing, he has accumulated experience in both sprint and route races, showcasing adaptability.
A recent victory in the Lexington Stakes highlighted his closing speed, a critical asset in the crowded and competitive field of the Kentucky Derby. Hill Road's ability to accelerate in the final furlongs could enable him to overtake tiring frontrunners and secure a notable finish.
Betting on underdogs in the Kentucky Derby has historically offered both high risks and high rewards. Analyzing past trends reveals that while favorites often perform well, long shots occasionally disrupt expectations, leading to substantial payouts for those who backed them. For instance, Giacomo's 2005 victory at 50-1 odds provided significant returns for astute bettors.
In the context of the 2025 Derby, current betting analytics indicate that underdogs like Burnham Square, Owen Almighty, Coal Battle, East Avenue, and Hill Road are attracting modest attention from bettors seeking lucrative opportunities. While their odds reflect their outsider status, subtle shifts in betting patterns suggest growing confidence among specific segments of the wagering community.
However, weighing the pros and cons of betting on underdogs is essential. While the potential for a substantial payoff exists, the likelihood of an underdog victory remains lower compared to favorites. Bettors should consider factors such as the horse's recent form, training regimen, and performance in preparatory races when making informed decisions.
From Donerail to Rich Strike, the Kentucky Derby has never been short on surprises. The 2025 race is shaping to be no different, with a mix of dominant favorites and potential breakout stars. If history has taught us anything, it’s that no horse should ever be counted out. With high stakes and even higher anticipation for the upcoming Kentucky Derby, another thrilling upset could be around the corner.
