A cardinal opens door to the secretive conclave where the next Pope will be determined.
Throughout your life, you’ll be lucky to see the Vatican’s white‑smoke drama maybe three or four times. One way to make the occasion even more interesting is to bet on it.
Sign up to Kalshi here to bet on Next Pope markets
Across top prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, already more than $20 million has been traded on the next conclave, which is set to begin Wednesday, May 7.
The platforms will facilitate wagers on the event until white smoke appears, signaling that the two-thirds of the College of Cardinals have agreed on the next pope. Suffice it to say, it’s not too late to get in on the action, and if you’re perusing the markets looking to turn your prediction into profit, there are some pope betting strategies that could give you an edge.
Betting on the next pope isn’t like wagering on a sports game or a presidential election. The College of Cardinals operates behind closed doors, which makes the event more opaque and unpredictable. For bettors, that means digging into the ideological leanings of cardinals, recognizing historical patterns and geopolitical shifts, and strategic diversification.
The selection of the pope is one of the most secretive processes in the world. We do not have polling to look at, and the cardinals play their cards close to the vest. With so little public information, no one really knows how this is going to play out, making it a more speculative event than traditional political elections. That, however, hasn’t prevented a betting favorite from emerging.
Priced at 28¢ (28% chance of winning), Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is getting most of the initial buzz. Given the electorate makeup and other dynamics that we’ll talk about shortly, Parolin certainly makes sense. But the bottom line is that these markets are noisy, and public sentiment often overvalues the biggest, most popular names. In fact, the next pope may not even be currently listed in the market.
A 2013 paper from economists Leighton Williams and David Paton states: “Within the context of 500 years of papal election betting, we employ a unique dataset of betting on the 2013 papal election to investigate how new public information is incorporated into the betting odds. Our results suggest that the market was generally unable to incorporate such information effectively.”
Going back to 1978, the betting favorite when conclave begins has only won once out of four times, with outsiders like Karol Wojtyla (October 1978) and underdogs like Jorge Bergoglio (2013) rising to the top.
Currently, bettors can wager 74¢ to profit 26¢ that Parolin will not be the next pope—or $74 to profit $26. Of course it doesn’t come without risk, but who doesn’t like a 35% return on investment?
Anytime you’re making predictions, whether for fun or real money, it’s important to do your diligence to understand all the factors at play. While we don’t know exactly what each cardinal is thinking, we can make some assumptions based on their background, including who appointed them.
Here’s what we know about the current electorate:
This means that a strong majority of the cardinals are likely sympathetic to Francis’ pastoral and reformist approach. In other words, it may be an uphill battle for more conservative papabili (i.e., viable candidates) to earn a two-thirds majority of ballots.
Look at other voting bloc factions: In addition to the more general conservative vs. liberal bloc, there are other voting blocs to consider, including geographic ones.
Of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote, a record 82 are not from Europe. Here’s how the demographics break down:
The more conservative cardinals from Africa could join forces with conservatives from Europe, such as Peter Erdo of Hungary, and moderate reformists to try to elect a more centrist pope.
While the pendulum is unlikely to swing too far to the right considering the voting body, there are historical trends that suggest the College of Cardinals may turn to a more curial pope—a bureaucrat who has worked or trained inside the Roman Curia—following Pope Francis’ pastoral reign.
That’s largely been the trend dating back to 1903:
The pendulum swings from pastoral to curial popes every conclave with the exception of 1978, when Pope John Paul I died unexpectedly of a heart attack merely 33 days after his election.
So who does that leave us this time? Pietro Parolin (Vatican Secretary of State), Luis Antonio Tagle (Dicastery of Evangelization), Jean-Claude Hollerich (Synod of Bishops), just to name a few.
One way to manage your risk on prediction markets is to diversify your portfolio, either with multiple picks or across different markets. Kalshi, for example, has launched more than one market related to the next pope.
Beyond simply betting on who will be elected, users can trade on what the next pope’s name will be, how many rounds it will take to elect the new pope, and the birth country and birth continent of the next pope. In other words, there’s no need to put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your bets out, and be open to hedging your larger positions.
Speaking of different markets, betting on how many rounds it will take to elect a new pope and when the next pope will be announced could be a profitable endeavor.
Conclaves have become shorter over the past century, with three of the last four conclaves lasting only two days. The last time a conclave took four days or longer was 1958. With so many cardinals having been appointed by Pope Francis, there’s no reason to expect fireworks this time.
As we’ve discussed, there is very little news compared to more public elections, as the cardinals are sworn to secrecy. But that doesn’t mean there’s no news. Though rare, leaks have occurred, including ballot counts in 2005 and 2013 showing who were the early favorites within the Sistine Chapel.
Needless to say, staying glued to Rome’s rumor mill, and smoke-signals is an actionable strategy. Based on the Vatican’s 2013 timetable, which is expected to be copied this week, the cardinals will decide together whether they will cast one ballot the first evening of the conclave. After that, two ballots can be cast each morning and two each afternoon until a candidate receives two-thirds of the votes.
The Vatican uses smoke signals to communicate what is going on with the outside world; black smoke indicates that the jury is still hung, while white smoke confirms that the Church has selected a new pope.
Smoke will appear around 7 p.m. (UTC+2) in St. Peter’s Square after the first ballot on the evening of the conclave. On the following days, you can expect smoke signals at 10:30 a.m. and noon; then, if necessary, at 5:30 p.m. and 7 p.m. Around these times—and especially if you aren’t glued to your computer—it’s probably best to take down any limit orders so that your trades aren’t sniped.
Keep in mind that Rome is six hours ahead of Eastern time here in the states.
At the end of the day, you don’t need to be a theologian or a Catholic to bet on the conclave. You just need to do a little research, develop a theory that makes sense given the known information, stay on top of the news, and bet (or trade) responsibly.
The cardinals have their ballots, you’ve got your limit orders. Let the smoke—and the odds—roll.
