Sep 27, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jose Alvarado (46) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the fifth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: James A. Pittman-Imagn Images
The Phillies locked up a top-two seed on the National League side of the MLB postseason bracket on Wednesday. We know the Phils will have a bye for the wild card round of the playoffs, and we know they will have home field advantage in their divisional series. Game one of their NLDS will be played at Citizens Bank Park on October 5.
But with a handful of games left to play, three questions remain:
1. Will the Phillies secure the NL's number one seed and guarantee home field advantage in the NLCS?
2. Will the Phillies secure a better record than all AL teams and guarantee home field advantage in the World Series?
3. Who will be the Phillies' NLDS opponent?
On Friday, the Phillies lost to the Nationals and the Dodgers beat the Rockies, eliminating much hope for the Phillies to secure the NL's top seed. The Phillies own the tiebreaker based on head-to-head record but it's now unlikely to matter.
- Dodgers play 2 @ Rockies
- Phillies play 2 @ Nationals
- If the Dodgers go 2-0, they get the top seed.
- If the Dodgers go 1-1, they get the top seed.
- If the Dodgers go 0-2, the Phillies get the top seed if they go 2-0.
Prediction: Dodgers will get the top seed, and home field advantage over the Phillies if they meet in the NLCS.
The Yankees and the Guardians are the only AL teams that could get home field advantage over the Phils in the World Series. Both teams own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Phillies.
- Yankees play 2 vs. Pirates
- Guardians play 2 vs Astros
- Phillies play 2 @ Nationals
- If the Phillies go 2-0, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series.
- If the Phillies go 1-1, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series unless the Yankees go 2-0. The Guardians would not be able to catch the Phillies.
- If the Phillies go 0-2, they will secure home field advantage in the World Series unless the Yankees go 1-1 or better OR the Guardians go 2-0.
Prediction: Phillies win their two remaining games against the Nats behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, locking up home field advantage for any potential World Series.
The Phillies will play one of the following teams: Padres, Brewers, Mets, Braves, or Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks are currently on the outside of the postseason looking in, but they could still win a spot at the expense of the Mets or Braves.
The Brewers are locked in as the NL's three seed, and in the wild card round they will play whichever team ends up with the six seed. The winner of the Brewers/six seed matchup will then face the two seed.
The four and five seeds will play each other in the wild card round. The winner of that matchup will then face the one seed.
Because the Phillies may end up with the one seed or two seed, and because the four/five/six seeds are all in flux, all possible NLDS matchups are still in play.
If the postseason started today, the bracket would look like this:
Prediction: Mets somehow Met themselves out of a postseason spot. Seeding ends up (3) Brewers, (4) Padres, (5) Braves, (6) Diamondbacks. At (2), Phillies get winner of Brewers/Diamondbacks in the NLDS.
