Aug 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jeff Hoffman (23) snaps his fingers in reaction to the final out in a victory against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Bill Streicher
Whether Jeff Hoffman signs to be a starting pitcher or a reliever, it doesn't appear that he'll be returning to the Phillies in 2025.
The Phillies traded for Jesús Luzardo Sunday, and then signed Joe Ross to fill their swing role Monday. Luzardo will be in the Opening Day starting rotation, with Ross likely to be the long man to open the season, but able to step into the rotation if need be.
In a meeting with the media Monday evening, Dombrowski was asked about both Hoffman and Spencer Turnbull, and gave an answer that's not hard to read between the lines of.
"Well, of course, they're not with us now, and I cannot for baseball rules comment on free-agent players," Dombrowski said via Zoom. "They're not with us anymore, they're not our players.
"But I would just say, right now, we're happy where we are with our bullpen."
Turnbull clearly won't be returning, as Ross fills the role he successfully occupied early in the 2024 season. In recent weeks, it's become increasingly apparent that Hoffman returning isn't likely, even if he passes on the chance to be a starter again and signs to be a late-inning reliever.
With the signing of Ross Monday, On Pattison estimates that luxury tax payroll of the Phillies' current 40-man roster will be $304.42 million. Anything over $301 million is taxed at 110%. It seems right now like the Phillies are most likely to take the roster they have into Spring Training.
While the door isn't officially closed on Hoffman, it seems to be all but. Over on Bleacher Report, I projected that Hoffman would sign for three years and $39 million at the outset of the offseason. Because of their current luxury tax situation, the Phillies would be committing close to $30 million to Hoffman in 2025 if they re-sign him now without making any significant subtractions.
Highest Strikeout % for Phillies Pitchers since 2010 (min. 100 IP):
33.4% Jeff Hoffman
32.5% Ken Giles
31.8% Matt Strahm
31.0% Antonio Bastardo
30.8% Jose Alvarado
30.4% Hector Neris
28.7% Jake Diekman
27.2% Ryan Madson
27.1% Zack Wheelerpic.twitter.com/dG5AajA96a
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) December 23, 2024
It's also worth pointing out that since Dombrowski took over the front office for the Phillies in December of 2020, the Phillies haven't given out many deals beyond one year for relievers. The Phillies signed José Alvarado to a three-year contract with a club option for a fourth year in February of 2023, but that deal included his final year of arbitration and he was 28. Seranthony Domínguez also got a two-year deal with a club option for a third season. Domínguez was also 28. The Phillies have received mixed results from both contract extensions.
The flip side is that the original two-year/$15 million deal that the Phillies signed Matt Strahm to in free agency, while panned by some at the time, turned out to be extremely team-friendly.
Dombrowski says that he doesn't have any rule not to go beyond two years with a reliever, but acknowledged how risky making long-term commitments to bullpen arms can be.
"Well, if Mariano Rivera was there, I'd be happy to go four years," Dombrowski joked.
"You know, there's just a lot of inconsistencies in relievers in general. It's more of a philosophical type of thing that some of the inconsistencies [make the Phillies hesitant]. But I have to tell you, it's not a steadfast rule by any means. It just depends upon who the guys out there are at this time."
Tanner Scott is probably the top reliever on the free-agent market currently, but you can definitely make the argument that Hoffman — assuming you view him as a relief pitcher — is the second best. He posted a 2.28 ERA across 122 games for the Phillies the past two seasons, and was an All-Star in 2024.
But Hoffman is 31, and the Phillies don't seem to be fond of making long-term investments in relievers. They have already signed Jordan Romano to a one-year/$8.5 million deal, which comes with some risk considering he's trying to bounce back from an injury-riddled season. But the difference is that if things don't work out for Romano in 2025, the Phillies can just move on next offseason.
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