Sixers fell woefully short in miserable season, but sometimes the right moves are ones you don’t make

You can stop squinting now. 

While there are games still to be played, it's all cosmetic. The Sixers, eliminated from playoff contention, will fall woefully short of the postseason picture, let alone the title aspirations they had after a perceived gangbuster summer of 2024.

"Well, obviously it's not anywhere near where we had hoped it would be when we set out this summer, this fall. That's for sure. That's the only thing we can say," Nick Nurse said after the Miami Heat put the final nail in Philadelphia's coffin a week ago.

"It was super struggle, right? Just, most of the way, I think it was only a couple times of some momentum, right? December, and then there was another four- or five-game winning streak in there too where you're kind of always holding out hope that the team was playing better, getting some wins and hopefully get some players back."

Nurse went on to point to something that no local cares to hear about anymore, but is an objective truth nonetheless.

"And, said this numerous times, it just didn't seem like the injury bug would ever, ever leave us. It just seemed like every time we'd have a good game and get a win or something, it cost us a player or two for the next one," he said.

"We could never just really build a new momentum. So obviously, super, super disappointing. Not where we want to be at all."

A Sixers skeptic would laugh at the idea that this was at all surprising. Joel Embiid's injury history is well-documented. As was Paul George's before the Sixers slid the soon-to-be 35-year-old a maximum contract on the first night of free agency in July 2024.

Two of the team's top three players shared two massive detractors - they were historically shaky in big playoff moments, and availability was always a concern.

Almost 72 percent of the cap was tied up in Embiid and George. 55.5 percent of the team's total payroll going into the season-opener.

(To be clear, there will be no revising history here. I lauded Philadelphia's moves last summer. But it is fair and necessary to reflect on everything now that this season ended in epic disaster.)

There was logic in betting against the Sixers. In most cases, you're only as good as your best player in this league. You're no good if your best players are constantly in street clothes or falling short of their maximum capacities due to health issues.

Still, they added wings and traditional forwards, reunited with a guy who had a pleasant first tour with the franchise to serve in the minutes that Embiid was unavailable and replaced Tobias Harris' salary slot with a player whose credentials far exceeded those of the departing Sixer.

Optimists would point to the signing of George and the other moves up and down the roster and find the logic in every decision.

The only thing that was abundantly clear at the time was that they were trending older.

And then the Sixers landed in the Bahamas for training camp. The cracks in the foundation began to develop. The foreshadowing had already commenced, we just didn't know it then.

Embiid was visible at the team's sessions in the bowels of a hotel on Paradise Island. Yet, the extent of his involvement in those sessions was never clear.

By the time the week passed and the team embarked on its preseason slate, all anyone knew about Embiid was that he looked mighty comfortable shooting casually on those practice courts in his UGG slippers, and the words he spoke to the media, himself.

His daily goal was to "slowly build back up" from last season's knee injury.

"Even going back to when we signed that last extension, they made sure to let me know that they had my back and they understand me. They know me. I’ve already accomplished a lot of things and there’s one thing missing," Embiid told reporters on Thursday, Oct. 3.

"They just know that that’s all I care about. Yeah, I think taking my time, not pushing when you don’t have to."

Oh, that's right. There is one piece of business that wasn't mentioned. 

The Sixers capped their offseason by inking Embiid to a contract extension on Sept. 20. The deal pays $192,907,008 over the duration, with a player option for the 2028-29 season.

Embiid went on to never participate in a scrimmage in training camp, a preseason game or the first six games of the regular season. The official term for what was holding Embiid back, according to the league's injury report, was "left knee injury management."

There was trouble in paradise before Embiid ever suited up for a game.

"What feeling?," Tyrese Maxey shot back when asked if the feeling was the latest in a pattern of the Sixers not playing well when Embiid was unavailable after the team's season-opening loss to the Milwaukee Bucks.

"When he's not there, you guys don't play well overall-", the reporter responded.

"We've played one game. So I'm not about to sit here and say that just because Joel was out, that we played bad," Maxey interrupted.

"I mean, yes, we did not win the game, which is the ultimate goal. But we've been without Joel all preseason, all training camp for the most part. He's been ramping up. So we have to go out there and execute what we worked on. It's not just...us winning can't be solely on Joel Embiid. It just can't. There's no championship team out there that...if Joel doesn't play and if we lose every single game, we can't win like that."

Maxey went on to attribute the loss to an inability to make shots. He suggested that his team had to "keep playing the right way". 

He vowed that they'd be better. That he'd be better. At the time, he wasn't worried.

But that opening night beatdown was symbolic of the season upon which Philadelphia was about to embark.

Embiid was surprisingly ruled out shortly ahead of the season-opener, the obscure "left knee injury management" label being the only offering of what was going on.

Tensions and frustrations bubbled with the team's uninspiring start to the season, ostensibly contributing to the locker room altercation involving Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes for which Embiid was suspended three games.

(As an aside, On Pattison was not present in the locker room for the incident. But keep the criticism related to the court and those things likely don't happen.)

So, Embiid took the court for the first time nine games into the season.

He was timid and lacked force. George, who had already returned to the lineup after missing the first five games of the season with a bone bruise in his left knee, looked good. The partnership was clunky. Philadelphia fell apart in the second half, much to the enjoyment of the New Yorkers who took over The Center.

More symbolism of what was to come.

Nothing ever felt quite right. Embiid was supposed to be the centerpiece of a new big three, not the subject of a locker room meeting just 13 games into the season.

His season was a walking contradiction, just as those of his co-stars were. 

At his Media Day availability, Embiid preached the importance of consistency. Regardless of whether it was his own fault, he was anything but consistent - in both play and availability.

(Another aside - I have a very difficult time believing that Embiid's participation and usage in the 2024 Olympics contributed to his downfall this season. It just doesn't seem like he was involved enough for it to really contribute to the problem.)

George told reporters at his introductory press conference that he wanted to help ease the offensive burden Embiid carried. He had his worst season in a decade, showing little ability to create leverage off the dribble on his way to 16.2 points per game on 54.3 percent true shooting. Worse than that, he played most games as if the season was happening to him. George rarely ever showed a desire or capacity to bend a contest to his will.

There were at least stretches during which Maxey fulfilled his promise from opening night. Still, he often looked out of his depth, taxed to influence winning at a high clip.

On one hand, it's difficult to cast significant blame at Nurse when his best players didn't hold up their ends of the bargain. His team set a new NBA record for most starting lineups used in a single season.

What coach is manufacturing success with that?

On the other hand, lineups with the trio of Embiid, Maxey and George were outscored by 0.9 points per 100 possessions in 619 possessions, per Cleaning The Glass.

That's not an ironclad sample size, to be clear. But the eye test generally supported that number. There is some context that matters. For instance, the defensive side of the ball was where those lineups really struggled. If you watched Embiid at all this season, you could tell he wasn't the same imposing presence at the rim that he's been throughout his career. You can't necessarily blame Nurse for that.

However, the offense should've offered a far deeper menu than it did. There was the occasional nice set, but it was mostly uninspiring. That falls on Nurse and his staff.

Still, that record for starting lineups is a massive point toward absolving Nurse of this disaster.

The best argument for shoveling blame on the head coach lies in shot quality data.

The Sixers consistently generated bad shots this season:

Courtesy of Krishna Narsu, bball-index.com They also consistently afforded their opponents great shots:

Courtesy of Krishna Narsu, bball-index.comSo, regardless of the big three, Philadelphia consistently struggled to make offense easy to come by while making it too easy for the opposition to score. Doesn't that have to, by definition, fall on coaching? Isn't that just another way of saying the coach failed to squeeze the most out of his personnel? It was clear that George lost a step - be it from nagging lower body injuries or natural aging - causing him to settle for contested jumpers often. He suffered from bizarrely bad three-point-shooting luck. George's play, by itself, doesn't capture Nurse's fault in all of this. The same applies with Embiid, whose play was visibly restrained by health.

Nurse doesn't escape Maxey's drop in efficiency, though.

Via bball-index.com

While Maxey's effective field goal percentage was quite uninspiring, his shot quality was consistently horrendous. Overall shot making efficiency is a z-score of the effective field goal percentage minus overall shot quality. The z-score component means that any value above zero is above average. In other words, a positive figure means you're out-shooting your shot quality. 

So, as inefficient as Maxey was at times, he still made more of his shot diet than expected.

The fact that that feels surprising points back to Nurse. It never felt like Maxey got easy shots. It rarely felt like there were set plays for Maxey to get clean looks. You never saw much of Maxey being used off the ball. Lineup construction rarely worked toward maximizing his game.

But at the end of the day, the 50-plus starting lineups record just speaks louder than any other argument.

That brings us to Daryl Morey, the architect of this group.

He's had five seasons to bring this era to new heights. It hasn't happened. Given the salary cap flexibility to finally sculpt the team he envisioned, Morey married the franchise to two potentially horrendous contracts for the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, are Josh Harris and company really going to pay Morey and/or Nurse for years just to stay away?

More importantly, suppose the basketball gods smile down upon Philadelphia with a lottery pick this summer. Are you willing to undergo major front office turnover with a potential future-changing draft choice on the horizon?

Consider Morey's draft picks since arriving in Philadelphia:

 

Year	Round	Pick	Choice	Outcome
2020	First	21	Tyrese Maxey	All-Star
2020	Second	34	Theo Maledon	Traded; out of NBA
2020	Second	36	Tyler Bey	Traded for Seth Curry; out of NBA
2020	Second	49	Isaiah Joe	On third contract
2020	Second	58	Paul Reed	On third contract
2021	First	28	Jaden Springer	On third contract
2021	Second	50	Filip Petrusev	Out of NBA
2021	Second	53	Charles Bassey	On third contract
2022	First	23	David Roddy	Traded for De'Anthony Melton
2023	None	UDFA	Terquavion Smith	Out of NBA
2023	None	UDFA	Ricky Council IV	On first contract
2024	First	16	Jared McCain	ROY frontrunner until season-ending injury
2024	Second	41	Adem Bona	On first contract

Many of those selections have gone elsewhere since being drafted to Philadelphia, of course. But Morey's front office has generally done a very good job in the draft, at least relative to the average outcome for the respective picks.

None of this is an attempt to change your stance on Morey. He's earned his share of criticism, from bad free-agent signings and trades to managing player relationships en route to trade requests. 

But his front office in Philadelphia has proven to be most reliable on draft night. With the future of the franchise potentially hanging on the outcome of this pick, I don't really see an argument that the Sixers are better off with the field than they are with the current brain trust.

There's usually hell to pay for a season like the one the Sixers and their fans have endured. But sometimes the right moves are the ones you don't make.